Giulia Aliprandi

Research Economist

About Me

I am a research economist specializing in international taxation and tax avoidance. At the EU Tax Observatory, I conduct policy-relevant research on multinational firms and tax havens. Previously I worked as an economist at the OECD and Banque de France. I hold a PhD from Paris School of Economics.

Research

with Thijs Busschots and Carlos Oliveira

We examine the global prevalence and distribution of shell companies, which are often used for illicit financial activities like tax evasion. Using business registry data for over 200 jurisdictions, including individual US states, we construct an indicator of shell company prevalence based on the number of registered companies per capita. We find that known tax havens like the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands have extremely high rates of company presence per adult. Zooming in on Europe reveals Estonia as a lesser-known host for shell companies, besides flagging known conduit countries like Luxembourg and Cyprus. A unique decomposition of US states also shows Delaware and Wyoming are potentially hosting a large number of shell companies. Indicative for the role of shell companies in international tax evasion, our shell company prevalence indicator correlates with jurisdiction characteristics catering tax evasion, such as low corporate tax rate and aggressive tax treaties.

Coverage: Alternatives Economiques

with Gerrit von Zedlitz

Country-by-Country Reports (CbCRs) offer unique public data to analyze multinational corporation activities, but concerns exist about reliability due to potential double counting and comparability issues. This paper benchmarks CbCR data against consolidated financials, finding limited double counting and exceptions in variable definitions and scope that complicate comparisons. The analysis assesses CbCR reliability for economic research and provides recommendations to improve CbCR information quality and comparability across companies.

with Sarah Godar, Tommaso Faccio, Petr Jansky, and Katia Toledo Ruiz

We analyze voluntarily published country-by-country reports from 35 multinational enterprises, assessing the value and limitations of the qualitative and quantitative data compared to company financial reports and OECD aggregate statistics. The analysis finds minor concerns about data quality overall, though substantial corrections may be needed for some firms, and results show sampled MNEs pay higher tax rates than average and report little profit in tax havens, with minimal correlation between profit location and tax rates that may reflect less aggressive tax avoidance by more transparent firms. Important variations between company tax risks are revealed through the assessment of different indicators.

Discretionary tax changes and the underground economy: new

narrative evidence for Italy

This paper estimates the dynamic effects of discretionary tax changes when tax evasion is present, focusing on the case of Italy. Using a new quarterly database that separates underground and regular output, the paper documents a robust positive response of tax evasion and strong negative effects on regular output following a tax increase. These dynamics are estimated using the local projection method where the fiscal shock is identified using a newly constructed narrative measure.

Notes & Reports

Australian public cbcr, Filling the gaps?

with Kane Borders

This report examines the landscape of corporate tax transparency, focusing on Country-by-Country ​Reporting (CbCR) which requires multinationals to disclose financial and tax information for each ​country of operation. We reveal that large multinationals, particularly from Western Europe, are ​leading voluntary disclosures. However, such disclosures account for less than 2% of large ​companies and under 5% of global revenues and profits. The European Union recently adopted a ​mandatory CbCR directive, which our simulations show will compel nearly one-third of large U.S. ​multinationals to publicly disclose more disaggregated financial information. However, the directive ​has limitations, as the geographical disaggregation requirements are insufficient to truly evaluate ​multinational activities. Broader adoption and enhancements to corporate tax transparency ​initiatives are crucial moving forward.

Coverage: Taxnotes, Bloomberg

with Kane Borders

This note analyzes trends in voluntary public disclosure of country-by-country reports (CbCRs) by multinational corporations, finding that while overall CbCR publishing rates remain low, the number of companies publishing is increasing rapidly, driven by European firms and extractive sector companies, though published reports vary in completeness and accessibility. The analysis concludes that upcoming regulations and improved reporting standards can further enhance tax transparency through CbCRs.

with Mona Barake and Paul-Emmanuel Chouc

This report documents the activity of European banks in tax havens and how this activity has evolved since 2014. The analysis covers 36 systemic European banks that have been required to publicly report country-by-country data on their activities since 2014. We study the level and evolution of the profits booked by these banks in tax havens over the 2014-2020 period. We also compute their effective tax rates and their tax deficit—defined as the difference between what these banks currently pay in taxes and what they would pay if they were subject to a minimum effective tax rate in each country.

Public country-by-country reports database

Together with the stellar volunteers of Data for Good, we developed a new website to track which multinationals publish CbCRs and analyse this data. Check it out!

2023

May - Investing in the future of Europe: building EU own resources, Brussels

2022

July - Expert meeting on the Unshell Directive

October - public hearing on "Case studies on member states’ national tax policies - Luxembourg: implemented national tax reforms and the combat against aggressive tax schemes”

Dec - Tax Transparency Conference, NHH Univerity, Bergen

Dec - VBDO EU Tax transparency benchmark, Rotterdam

2021

Sept - European banks in tax havens: evidence and countermeasures

Nov - Audition at the French Senate: “Pandora papers: how to control the creation and beneficial ownership of offshore companies?”

Giulia Aliprandi

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